Open AccessMacroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in T hailand, S outh A frica and U ganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
Author(s) -
Smith Richard D.,
KeoghBrown Marcus R.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
influenza and other respiratory viruses
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.743
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1750-2659
pISSN - 1750-2640
DOI - 10.1111/irv.12137
Subject(s) - computable general equilibrium , pandemic , influenza pandemic , economic impact analysis , covid-19 , pandemic influenza , economics , medicine , macroeconomics , disease , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , microeconomics
Background Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and middle‐income countries. Objectives To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in T hailand, S outh A frica and U ganda with particular reference to pandemic ( H 1 N 1) 2009. Methods A single‐country whole‐economy computable general equilibrium ( CGE ) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Results Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. U ganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of T hailand and S outh A frica. Labour‐intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. Conclusions The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low‐income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic ( H 1 N 1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.