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The impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation targeting monetary policy in emerging and advanced economies
Author(s) -
Keefe Helena Glebocki
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
international finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.458
H-Index - 39
eISSN - 1468-2362
pISSN - 1367-0271
DOI - 10.1111/infi.12368
Subject(s) - economics , volatility (finance) , exchange rate , monetary policy , emerging markets , monetary economics , inflation targeting , output gap , inflation (cosmology) , macroeconomics , econometrics , physics , theoretical physics
Exchange rate volatility is a stated concern for policymakers in many emerging market economies. This paper investigates whether exchange rate volatility impacts the commitment to inflation targeting monetary policy by analyzing thirteen emerging market economies and nine advanced economies from 2000 to 2016. Using a dynamic panel threshold regression model, the response of the domestic target interest rate to the inflation gap, output gap, and exchange rate condition is tested in scenarios of above‐threshold and below‐threshold exchange rate volatility. Both emerging and advanced economies adhere to their inflation targeting commitments when exchange rate volatility is below 1%, but are unable or unwilling to respond to deviations in the inflation gap when volatility is beyond this threshold value.