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Prediction of non‐biochemical recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy in a J apanese cohort: Development of a postoperative nomogram
Author(s) -
Okubo Hidenori,
Ohori Makoto,
Ohno Yoshio,
Nakashima Jun,
Inoue Rie,
Nagao Toshitaka,
Tachibana Masaaki
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
international journal of urology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.172
H-Index - 67
eISSN - 1442-2042
pISSN - 0919-8172
DOI - 10.1111/iju.12327
Subject(s) - nomogram , prostatectomy , medicine , biochemical recurrence , urology , prostate cancer , prostate specific antigen , concordance , proportional hazards model , lymph node , hazard ratio , oncology , cancer , confidence interval
Objective To develop a nomogram based on postoperative factors and prostate‐specific antigen levels to predict the non‐biochemical recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy in a J apanese cohort. Methods A total of 606 J apanese patients with T 1‐ 3N0M0 prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection at T okyo M edical U niversity hospital from 2000 to 2010 were studied. A nomogram was constructed based on C ox hazard regression analysis evaluating the prognostic significance of serum prostate‐specific antigen and pathological factors in the radical prostatectomy specimens. The discriminating ability of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index ( C ‐index), and the predicted and actual outcomes were compared with a bootstrapped calibration plot. Results With a mean follow up of 60.0 months, a total of 187 patients (30.9%) experienced biochemical recurrence, with a 5‐year non‐biochemical recurrence rate of 72.3%. Based on a C ox hazard regression model, a nomogram was constructed to predict non‐biochemical recurrence using serum prostate‐specific antigen level and pathological features in radical prostatectomy specimens. The concordance index was 0.77, and the calibration plots appeared to be accurate. Conclusions The postoperative nomogram described here can provide valuable information regarding the need for adjuvant/salvage radiation or hormonal therapy in patients after radical prostatectomy.