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GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH, TECHNOLOGY, AND MALTHUSIAN CONSTRAINTS: A QUANTITATIVE GROWTH THEORETIC PERSPECTIVE
Author(s) -
Lanz Bruno,
Dietz Simon,
Swanson Timothy
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
international economic review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.658
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 1468-2354
pISSN - 0020-6598
DOI - 10.1111/iere.12242
Subject(s) - economics , population growth , population , investment (military) , technological change , productivity , agriculture , agricultural productivity , economic geography , production (economics) , endogenous growth theory , natural resource economics , human capital , macroeconomics , geography , economic growth , archaeology , sociology , politics , demography , political science , law
We structurally estimate a two‐sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long‐run evolution of global population, technological progress, and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth, and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onward show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100, global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.