Climate change and rates of vagrancy of S iberian bird species to E urope

To assess whether increasing numbers of S iberian vagrants observed in E urope in recent autumns can be linked to climate change, we predicted changes in the climatic suitability of the breeding ranges of 46 S iberian bird species known to show vagrancy to E urope and compared these predictions with observed changes in recorded rates of autumn vagrancy across eight E uropean countries during the last three decades. There was a positive correlation between predicted increase in breeding range and vagrancy rates. A positive impact of climate change on range and population size could promote vagrancy, while the increasing use of such alternative migration flyways could provide adaptive advantages in a changing environment.