Penal Reform and Probation in Europe: Positive Change of Direction, ‘Nudges to the Rudder’, or ‘Steady as She Goes’?

Penal policy can be influenced by a range of factors, including fear of crime, punitive priorities, and perceived future threats to public safety. Nevertheless, there have been some reductions in numbers in prison globally, echoed in reducing numbers on probation supervision in Europe, in recent times. Such trends raise the question of whether there is a discernible movement towards penal reform, and if so, what influences such movement. The possible influence of supranational bodies, changes in communications media, greater attention to former service users, and generally improved stakeholder engagement, are considered. In particular, the influence of probation practice and its values on the wider criminal justice system and penal policy are explored. The author concludes that offender rehabilitation may have come through a challenging period to become again a central (yet fragile) pillar of penal policy, evidencing in turn the ‘green shoots’ of further potential positive change.