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Modelling the impact of an HIV testing intervention on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China
Author(s) -
Booton Ross D.,
Ong Jason J.,
Lee Amy,
Liu Aifeng,
Huang Wenting,
Wei Chongyi,
Tang Weiming,
Ma Wei,
Vickerman Peter,
Tucker Joseph D.,
Mitchell Kate M.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
hiv medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.53
H-Index - 79
eISSN - 1468-1293
pISSN - 1464-2662
DOI - 10.1111/hiv.13063
Subject(s) - medicine , men who have sex with men , psychological intervention , intervention (counseling) , transmission (telecommunications) , demography , population , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , sexual transmission , environmental health , gerontology , immunology , syphilis , microbicide , psychiatry , sociology , electrical engineering , engineering
Objectives An intervention developed through participatory crowdsourcing methods increased HIV self‐testing among men who have sex with men [MSM; relative risk (RR) = 1.89]. We estimated the long‐term impact of this intervention on HIV transmission among MSM in four cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinan and Qingdao). Methods A mathematical model of HIV transmission, testing and treatment among MSM in China was parameterized using city‐level demographic and sexual behaviour data and calibrated to HIV prevalence, diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage data. The model was used to project the HIV infections averted over 20 years (2016–2036) from the intervention to increase self‐testing, compared with current testing rates. Results Running the intervention once would avert < 2.2% infections over 20 years. Repeating the intervention (RR = 1.89) annually would avert 6.4–10.7% of new infections, while further increases in the self‐testing rate (hypothetical RR = 3) would avert 11.7–20.7% of new infections. Conclusions Repeated annual interventions would give a three‐ to seven‐fold increase in long‐term impact compared with a one‐off intervention. Other interventions will be needed to more effectively reduce the HIV burden in this population.