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Impact of antiviral therapy on risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B
Author(s) -
Chon Hye Yeon,
Lee Jae Seung,
Lee Hye Won,
Chun Ho Soo,
Kim Beom Kyung,
Park Jun Yong,
Kim Do Young,
Ahn Sang Hoon,
Kim Seung Up
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
hepatology research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.123
H-Index - 75
eISSN - 1872-034X
pISSN - 1386-6346
DOI - 10.1111/hepr.13600
Subject(s) - hepatocellular carcinoma , medicine , chronic hepatitis , gastroenterology , antiviral therapy , hazard ratio , population , hepatitis b , confidence interval , immunology , virus , environmental health
Aim Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are available. However, the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on these models in patients with chronic hepatitis B is unknown. Methods The dynamic changes in risk prediction models during AVT and the association between risk prediction model and the risk of chronic hepatitis B‐related HCC development were investigated. Between 2005 and 2017, 4917 patients with chronic hepatitis B (3361 noncirrhotic, 1556 cirrhotic) were recruited. Results The mean age of the study population was 49.3 years and 60.6% ( n = 2980) of the patients were male. The mean Chinese University‐HCC (CU‐HCC) score was 12.7 at baseline in the overall study population, and decreased significantly (mean, 8.7) after 1 year of AVT ( p < 0.001). The score was maintained throughout 5 years of AVT (mean, 8.4–8.8; p > 0.05). The proportion of high‐risk patients (CU‐HCC score ≥ 20) was 28.9% at baseline, and decreased significantly after 1 year of AVT (5.0%; p < 0.001), and remained stable through 5 years of AVT (2.2%–3.6%; p > 0.05). In addition to the score at baseline, the CU‐HCC score at 1 year of AVT independently predicted the risk of HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.072; p < 0.001), together with male gender and platelet count (all p < 0.05). Conclusions The CU‐HCC score significantly decreased at 1 year of AVT and was maintained thereafter. The CU‐HCC score after 1 year of AVT independently predicted the risk of HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B.