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Long‐term prognosis of liver disease in patients with eradicated chronic hepatitis C virus: An analysis using a Markov chain model
Author(s) -
Tada Toshifumi,
Toyoda Hidenori,
Yasuda Satoshi,
Kumada Takashi,
Kurisu Akemi,
Ohisa Masayuki,
Akita Tomoyuki,
Tanaka Junko
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
hepatology research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.123
H-Index - 75
eISSN - 1872-034X
pISSN - 1386-6346
DOI - 10.1111/hepr.13512
Subject(s) - medicine , markov chain , term (time) , chronic hepatitis , gastroenterology , virology , liver disease , disease , virus , mathematics , physics , statistics , quantum mechanics
Aim The long‐term prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have received antiviral therapy and who demonstrate HCV eradication remains incompletely characterized. In this study, we investigated the long‐term prognosis of liver disease in patients with eradication of HCV. Methods A total of 552 patients with chronic HCV infection (6815 person‐years) who were treated with interferon‐based therapy and who achieved sustained virologic response were included. Yearly transition probabilities for each liver state (chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) were calculated using a Markov chain model. Results In the analysis of 1‐year liver disease state transition probabilities, progression to cirrhosis occurred in 0.5–2.1% of male patients with chronic hepatitis across all age groups. In male patients with cirrhosis, HCC developed in 0.6–1.9% of patients over the age of 50 years. In female patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis occurred in 0.4–2.1% of patients across all age groups. In addition, in female patients with cirrhosis, HCC developed in those aged 60–69 (0.4%) and 70–79 (0.4%) years. Under the assumption of either a chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis state at age 40 or 60 years as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 or 20 years, respectively, the probability of HCC gradually increased with age and was higher in male patients. Conclusions The development or progression of cirrhosis and the development of HCC are risks in HCV patients despite HCV eradication, not only in those with cirrhosis but also in those with chronic hepatitis.