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Cost of illness of non‐alcoholic liver cirrhosis in Japan: A time trend analysis and future projections
Author(s) -
Kitazawa Takefumi,
Matsumoto Kunichika,
Fujita Shigeru,
Seto Kanako,
Wu Yinghui,
Hirao Tomohiro,
Hasegawa Tomonori
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
hepatology research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.123
H-Index - 75
eISSN - 1872-034X
pISSN - 1386-6346
DOI - 10.1111/hepr.12913
Subject(s) - cirrhosis , alcoholic liver disease , medicine , hepatocellular carcinoma , estimation , alcoholic hepatitis , population , gastroenterology , environmental health , management , economics
Aim Liver cirrhosis is a preneoplastic condition to hepatocellular carcinoma that is an important worldwide public health concern, and its economic burden has been estimated in some countries. The objective of this study was to estimate and predict the cost of illness (COI) associated with non‐alcoholic liver cirrhosis in Japan. Methods Using a COI method on available data from government statistics, we estimated the economic burden in 3‐year intervals from 1996 to 2014. We then predicted the COI in 3‐year intervals from 2017 to 2029 using fixed and variable model estimations. With fixed model estimation, only the estimated future population was used as a variable. Variable model estimation considered the time trends of health‐related indicators throughout the past 18 years. Results The estimated COI of non‐alcoholic liver cirrhosis was ¥208.1bn in 2014. The COI of non‐alcoholic liver cirrhosis had a downward trend from 1996 to 2014. The predicted future COI of non‐alcoholic liver cirrhosis was ¥144.3–210.5bn, ¥106.0–213.8bn, ¥88.6–213.4bn, ¥76.7–215.5bn, and ¥66.4–214.3bn in 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2029, respectively. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that the COI of non‐alcoholic liver cirrhosis in Japan has steadily decreased and will continue to decrease. Treatment of patients with hepatitis C virus infection with newly introduced technologies has high therapeutic effectiveness, which will affect the future prevalence of non‐alcoholic liver cirrhosis. When interpreting the results of long‐term estimation, it should be noted that the results of this study were based on present conditions.