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Risk‐Based Decision‐Support Groundwater Modeling for the Lower San Antonio River Basin, Texas, USA
Author(s) -
Foster Linzy K.,
White Jeremy T.,
Leaf Andrew T.,
Houston Natalie A.,
Teague Aarin
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
groundwater
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.84
H-Index - 94
eISSN - 1745-6584
pISSN - 0017-467X
DOI - 10.1111/gwat.13107
Subject(s) - groundwater recharge , groundwater , hydrology (agriculture) , groundwater flow , structural basin , surface water , environmental science , base flow , groundwater model , drainage basin , geology , aquifer , environmental engineering , geography , geomorphology , geotechnical engineering , cartography
A numerical surface‐water/groundwater model was developed for the lower San Antonio River Basin to evaluate the responses of low base flows and groundwater levels within the basin under conditions of reduced recharge and increased groundwater withdrawals. Batch data assimilation through history matching used a simulation of historical conditions (2006‐2013); this process included history‐matching to groundwater levels and base‐flow estimates at several gages, and was completed in a high‐dimensional (highly parameterized) framework. The model was developed in an uncertainty framework such that parameters, observations, and scenarios of interest are envisioned stochastically as distributions of potential values. Results indicate that groundwater contributions to surface water during periods of low flow may be reduced from 6% to 25% with a corresponding 25% reduction in recharge and a 25% increase in groundwater pumping over an 8‐year planning period. Furthermore, results indicate groundwater‐level reductions in some hydrostratigraphic units are more likely than in other hydrostratigraphic units over an 8‐year period under drought conditions with the higher groundwater withdrawal scenario.