Negotiating failure: understanding the geopolitics of climate change

There is growing anticipation in the climate change community as expectations are running high for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties 21 (COP) in Paris in 2015. At this meeting there is the expectation that a new post-Kyoto international climate change treaty will be agreed which will come into force by 2020 at the latest. The last time expectations were so high was just prior to the Copenhagen COP15 in 2009 that ended in embarrassment and failure. Some commentators have suggested it set back the negotiations and real cuts in carbon emissions by over a decade (Maslin 2014). Joyeeta Gupta’s new book is therefore an accessible guide to the international climate change negotiations, and the legal and policy problems that climate change presents. It will appeal to students of climate change law and governance, those with more experience, or those who simply want to understand the difficulties in getting almost 200 countries to agree on one of the most important issues of our time. Part 1, ‘Introduction’, draws on a range of disciplines to explain the nature of the climate change problem and what can be done to resolve it. In chapter 1 ‘Grasping the essentials of the climate change problem’, Gupta lays out her approach to climate change – it is first and foremost a political problem, rather than a technocratic one, although the author does have a firm faith in the potential of technological change. Unusually for a work on international law and policy, Gupta not only briefly explains the basics of climate science, but immediately tackles the main arguments of the climate change sceptics. This likely reflects her past work with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Unfortunately, this is the weakest of all the chapters in the book and there are much better descriptions of the scientific evidence of climate change (e.g. Archer 2011; IPCC 2013; Maslin 2014). The author could also be accused of giving too much ground to the arguments of the sceptics. This section contains a paragraph that will irk many climate scientists – Gupta does not dispute the claim made by climate sceptics that the scientists are ‘self-serving’, but with irony says that this is also true of the sceptics (p. 10). Gupta is also critical of national media, which she criticises for ‘providing a platform for two opposing views even when the views may not be equally authoritative’. This is confusing the public (p. 10) and echoes the findings of the BBC commissioned report in 2011, which pointed out that the BBC were skewing whole scientific debates when setting up one-to-one discussions on radio and TV (Jones 2011). Despite this report, recently the BBC pitted climate scientists against politicians such as the Rt. Hon. Lord Lawson (former UK Energy Secretary and Chancellor under Margaret Thatcher, and noted climate change sceptic) who feels qualified to debunk any scientific evidence he does not agree with. Gupta then tackles the policy and economic arguments, which mainly revolve around cost. Here the author’s rebuttals to the sceptics’ arguments on cost effectiveness flow easily. The human rights, justice and equity approach to climate change are introduced, and the section ends with two further framings for climate change, as a ‘classic North–South issue’ and the South’s right to develop (p. 14). These key ideas form the backdrop to Gupta’s analysis. The author does however note with regards to addressing climate change that this right to develop ‘is more a principle of fairness than an idea that is practical’ (p. 21). Also presented here are some basic and simplified ideas on what likely occurs with economic growth, such as the demographic transition, forest transition and the rise and fall of pollution. In chapter 2, ‘Mitigation, adaptation and geoengineering’, Gupta reviews a broad range of literature in a succinct manner. Readers are presented with difficult problems regarding mitigation and adaptation, regardless of whether the solutions are technocratic or of a more fundamental nature. Slow action to implement the various measures at the disposal of policymakers is blamed on lock-in, vested interests, and fear of free-riders, leakage and loss of competitiveness. Gupta is keen to deal with contemporary ideas, and discusses the problems related to climate change disaster related insurance in a nuanced manner. The author also touches upon the scientific and legal uncertainties surrounding geo-engineering, but does not delve very deeply. bs_bs_banner