Environmental variability shapes evolution, plasticity and biogeographic responses to climate change

Aim We examine how environmental variability at seasonal and interannual time‐scales influences evolutionary trajectories and the role of plasticity in response to recent and future climate change at biogeographic scales. We investigate the interplay of selection pressures at chronic (performance) and acute (thermal stress) time‐scales. Location Colorado, USA. Time period 1950–2099. Major taxa studied A montane butterfly, clouded sulphur ( Colias eriphyle W.H. Edwards, 1876). Methods We leverage field and laboratory data to construct phenotype‐based models that predict fitness and evolutionary responses to recent and future climate change. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and determines adult fitness via its influence on body temperature. Results We project that phenology accelerates with decreasing elevation and climate change, but gradients in pupal and adult temperature with climate change are modest. Fitness of the first generation is predicted to decrease at low elevations and increase at high elevations with warming. Elevational clines in optimal wing absorptivity shift towards lower absorptivities with warming. We project that temporal shifts from selection for wing darkening (to extend flight time) to selection for wing lightening (to avoid overheating) in some cool, montane locations will ultimately impose fitness costs. Main conclusions Our analysis suggests that shifts in the balance of selection between acute and chronic responses to environmental variation will alter biogeographic responses to climate change. Evolutionary lags may ultimately confer greater sensitivity to climate change, but plasticity can reduce evolutionary lags by facilitating trait evolution.