Premium
Impact of sea level rise on the 10 insular biodiversity hotspots
Author(s) -
Bellard Céline,
Leclerc Camille,
Courchamp Franck
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
global ecology and biogeography
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.164
H-Index - 152
eISSN - 1466-8238
pISSN - 1466-822X
DOI - 10.1111/geb.12093
Subject(s) - biodiversity , endemism , geography , habitat , ecology , extinction (optical mineralogy) , biodiversity hotspot , global biodiversity , ecosystem , habitat destruction , insular biogeography , biology , paleontology
Aim Despite considerable attention to climate change, no global assessment of the consequences of sea level rise is available for insular ecosystems. Yet, over 180,000 islands world‐wide contain 20% of the world's biodiversity. We investigated the consequences of sea level rise for the 10 insular biodiversity hotspots world‐wide and their endemic species. This assessment is crucial to identify areas with the highest risk of inundation and the number of endemic species at risk of potential extinction. Location Ten insular biodiversity hotspots including the C aribbean islands, the J apanese islands, the P hilippines, the E ast M elanesian islands, P olynesia‐ M icronesia, S undaland, W allacea, N ew C aledonia, N ew Z ealand and M adagascar and the I ndian O cean islands (i.e. 4447 islands). Methods We investigated four scenarios of projected sea level rise (1, 2, 3 and 6 m) on these islands. For each scenario, we assessed the number of islands that would be entirely and partially submerged by overlying precise digital elevation model and island data. We estimated the number of endemic species for each taxon (i.e. plants, birds, reptiles, mammals, amphibians and fishes) potentially affected by insular habitat submersion using the endemic–area relationship. Results Between 6 and 19% of the 4447 islands would be entirely submerged under considered scenarios (1–6 m of sea level rise). Three hotspots displayed the most significant loss of insular habitat: the Caribbean islands, the P hilippines and Sundaland, representing a potential threat for 300 endemic species. Main conclusions With the current estimates of global sea level rise of at least 1 m by 2100, large parts of ecosystems of low‐lying islands are at high risk of becoming submerged, leading to significant habitat loss world‐wide. Therefore, the threat posed by sea level rise requires specific policies that prioritize insular biota on islands at risk as a result of near future sea level rise.