Open AccessLand suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use
Author(s) -
Cronin Jennifer,
Zabel Florian,
Dessens Olivier,
Anandarajah Gabrial
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
gcb bioenergy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.378
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1757-1707
pISSN - 1757-1693
DOI - 10.1111/gcbb.12697
Subject(s) - climate change , environmental science , agroforestry , land use, land use change and forestry , agricultural land , land use , energy crop , short rotation forestry , agriculture , bioenergy , cropping , greenhouse gas , climate change mitigation , geography , environmental protection , renewable energy , ecology , archaeology , biology
Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km 2 is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km 2 by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.