Open AccessBioenergy futures in Sweden – system effects of CO 2 reduction and fossil fuel phase‐out policies
Author(s) -
Börjesson Martin,
Athanassiadis Dimitris,
Lundmark Robert,
Ahlgren Erik O.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
gcb bioenergy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.378
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1757-1707
pISSN - 1757-1693
DOI - 10.1111/gcbb.12225
Subject(s) - bioenergy , biomass (ecology) , greenhouse gas , environmental science , fossil fuel , energy supply , energy security , natural resource economics , renewable energy , biofuel , economics , waste management , engineering , ecology , energy (signal processing) , statistics , mathematics , electrical engineering , biology
Bioenergy could contribute both to the reduction of greenhouse gases and to increased energy security, but the extent of this contribution strongly depends on the cost and potential of biomass resources. For Sweden, this study investigates how the implementation of policies for CO 2 reduction and for phase out of fossil fuels in road transport affect the future utilization of biomass, in the stationary energy system and in the transport sector, and its price. The analysis is based on the bottom‐up, optimization MARKAL _Sweden model, which includes a comprehensive representation of the national energy system. For the analysis, the biomass supply representation of MARKAL _Sweden is updated and improved by the use of, e.g., forestry forecasting modeling and through construction of detailed biomass supply curves. A time horizon up to 2050 is applied. The results indicate a potential for significantly higher use of bioenergy. In the main analysis scenario, in which CO 2 reduction of 80% by 2050 is imposed on the Swedish energy system, the total bioenergy utilization increases by 63% by 2050 compared to 2010. The largest increase occurs in the transport sector, which by 2050 accounts for 43% of the total primary bioenergy use. The high demand and strong competition significantly increase biomass prices and lead to the utilization of higher cost biomass sources such as stumps and cultivated energy forest, as well as use of pulpwood resources for energy purposes.