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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties
Author(s) -
Virkkala AnnaMaria,
Aalto Juha,
Rogers Brendan M.,
Tagesson Torbern,
Treat Claire C.,
Natali Susan M.,
Watts Jennifer D.,
Potter Stefano,
Lehtonen Aleksi,
Mauritz Marguerite,
Schuur Edward A. G.,
Kochendorfer John,
Zona Donatella,
Oechel Walter,
Kobayashi Hideki,
Humphreys Elyn,
Goeckede Mathias,
Iwata Hiroki,
Lafleur Peter M.,
Euskirchen Eugenie S.,
Bokhorst Stef,
Marushchak Maija,
Martikainen Pertti J.,
Elberling Bo,
Voigt Carolina,
Biasi Christina,
Sonnentag Oliver,
Parmentier FransJan W.,
Ueyama Masahito,
Celis Gerardo,
St.Louis Vincent L.,
Emmerton Craig A.,
Peichl Matthias,
Chi Jinshu,
Järveoja Järvi,
Nilsson Mats B.,
Oberbauer Steven F.,
Torn Margaret S.,
Park SangJong,
Dolman Han,
Mammarella Ivan,
Chae Namyi,
Poyatos Rafael,
LópezBlanco Efrén,
Christensen Torben Røjle,
Kwon Min Jung,
Sachs Torsten,
Holl David,
Luoto Miska
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.15659
Subject(s) - tundra , environmental science , boreal , ecosystem respiration , biome , boreal ecosystem , eddy covariance , atmospheric sciences , primary production , taiga , downscaling , climatology , terrestrial ecosystem , ecosystem , latitude , precipitation , meteorology , ecology , geography , geology , forestry , geodesy , biology
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2  yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2  yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

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