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The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer
Author(s) -
Loe Leif Egil,
Liston Glen E.,
Pigeon Gabriel,
Barker Kristin,
Horvitz Nir,
Stien Audun,
Forchhammer Mads,
Getz Wayne Marcus,
Irvine Robert Justin,
Lee Aline,
Movik Lars K.,
Mysterud Atle,
Pedersen Åshild Ø.,
Reinking Adele K.,
Ropstad Erik,
Trondrud Liv Monica,
Tveraa Torkild,
Veiberg Vebjørn,
Hansen Brage B.,
Albon Steve D.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.15458
Subject(s) - arctic , herbivore , climate change , population , phenology , environmental science , ecology , global warming , trophic level , population growth , range (aeronautics) , geography , physical geography , biology , demography , materials science , sociology , composite material
Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die‐offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual‐based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six‐week delay in snow‐onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter‐onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view.