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Water loss and temperature interact to compound amphibian vulnerability to climate change
Author(s) -
LertzmanLepofsky Gavia F.,
Kissel Amanda M.,
Sinervo Barry,
Palen Wendy J.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.15231
Subject(s) - environmental science , ectotherm , climate change , snow , habitat , ecology , free water , vulnerability (computing) , atmospheric sciences , hydric soil , biology , geography , meteorology , soil science , soil water , geology , computer security , environmental engineering , computer science
Abstract Ectotherm thermal physiology is frequently used to predict species responses to changing climates, but for amphibians, water loss may be of equal or greater importance. Using physical models, we estimated the frequency of exceeding the thermal optimum ( T opt ) or critical evaporative water loss (EWL crit ) limits, with and without shade‐ or water‐seeking behaviours. Under current climatic conditions (2002–2012), we predict that harmful thermal (> T opt ) and hydric (>EWL crit ) conditions limit the activity of amphibians during ~70% of snow‐free days in sunny habitats. By the 2080s, we estimate that sunny and dry habitats will exceed one or both of these physiological limits during 95% of snow‐free days. Counterintuitively, we find that while wet environments eliminate the risk of critical EWL, they do not reduce the risk of exceeding T opt (+2% higher). Similarly, while shaded dry environments lower the risk of exceeding T opt , critical EWL limits are still exceeded during 63% of snow‐free days. Thus, no single environment that we evaluated can simultaneously reduce both physiological risks. When we forecast both temperature and EWL into the 2080s, both physiological thresholds are exceeded in all habitats during 48% of snow‐free days, suggesting that there may be limited opportunity for behaviour to ameliorate climate change. We conclude that temperature and water loss act synergistically, compounding the ecophysiological risk posed by climate change, as the combined effects are more severe than those predicted individually. Our results suggest that predictions of physiological risk posed by climate change that do not account for water loss in amphibians may be severely underestimated and that there may be limited scope for facultative behaviours to mediate rapidly changing environments.