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On the relative role of climate change and management in the current desert locust outbreak in East Africa
Author(s) -
Meynard Christine N.,
Lecoq Michel,
Chapuis MariePierre,
Piou Cyril
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.15137
Subject(s) - climate change , desert locust , arid , geography , desertification , locust , outbreak , ecology , desert climate , desert (philosophy) , environmental resource management , environmental science , climatology , biology , political science , schistocerca , virology , law , geology
While large‐scale monitoring, early detection and control can greatly reduce desert locust invasions, global change is most likely to affect conditions that promote the transition from solitary to gregarious populations. Although climate change scenarios point to an increase in aridity and further desertification in vast areas of Africa, some regions that have been at the origin of past outbreaks are likely to see a reversed trend (i.e., increase in frequency and intensity of rains), potentially favoring the formation of swarms. This makes reinforcing early detection and keeping a sustained monitoring effort in place even more important under climate change.