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In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections
Author(s) -
Lefevre Sjannie,
McKenzie David J.,
Nilsson Göran E.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.13978
Subject(s) - scaling , exponent , fish <actinopterygii> , global warming , projection (relational algebra) , environmental science , statistical physics , climate change , physics , mathematics , biology , ecology , fishery , philosophy , linguistics , geometry , algorithm
In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung ([Cheung, W. W. L., 2017]) provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d G . Here we find that changing both d G and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W ∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill‐Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world.