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The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees
Author(s) -
Marshall Leon,
Biesmeijer Jacobus C.,
Rasmont Pierre,
Vereecken Nicolas J.,
Dvorak Libor,
Fitzpatrick Una,
Francis Frédéric,
Neumayer Johann,
Ødegaard Frode,
Paukkunen Juho P. T.,
Pawlikowski Tadeusz,
Reemer Menno,
Roberts Stuart P.M.,
Straka Jakub,
Vray Sarah,
Dendoncker Nicolas
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.13867
Subject(s) - climate change , range (aeronautics) , bumblebee , environmental science , climate change scenario , climate model , species distribution , land cover , global warming , land use, land use change and forestry , greenhouse gas , ecology , geography , climatology , physical geography , land use , biology , habitat , pollination , pollen , materials science , pollinator , composite material , geology
Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover ( LULC ) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg ( BENELUX ). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy ( GRAS ), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate‐only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario ( GRAS ; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species‐specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.

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