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Simulated climate change, epidemic size, and host evolution across host–parasite populations
Author(s) -
Auld Stuart K.J.R.,
Brand June
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.13769
Subject(s) - biology , population , ecology , host (biology) , population size , genetic drift , natural selection , adaptation (eye) , zoology , genetic variation , demography , biochemistry , neuroscience , sociology , gene
Climate change is causing warmer and more variable temperatures as well as physical flux in natural populations, which will affect the ecology and evolution of infectious disease epidemics. Using replicate seminatural populations of a coevolving freshwater invertebrate‐parasite system (host: Daphnia magna, parasite: Pasteuria ramosa ), we quantified the effects of ambient temperature and population mixing (physical flux within populations) on epidemic size and population health. Each population was seeded with an identical suite of host genotypes and dose of parasite transmission spores. Biologically reasonable increases in environmental temperature caused larger epidemics, and population mixing reduced overall epidemic size. Mixing also had a detrimental effect on host populations independent of disease. Epidemics drove parasite‐mediated selection, leading to a loss of host genetic diversity, and mixed populations experienced greater evolution due to genetic drift over the season. These findings further our understanding of how diversity loss will reduce the host populations’ capacity to respond to changes in selection, therefore stymying adaptation to further environmental change.