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Anticipating changes to future connectivity within a network of marine protected areas
Author(s) -
Coleman Melinda A.,
CetinaHeredia Paulina,
Roughan Moninya,
Feng Ming,
Sebille Erik,
Kelaher Brendan P.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.13634
Subject(s) - marine protected area , biological dispersal , climate change , marine reserve , kelp , environmental science , marine ecosystem , ecosystem , population , geography , ecology , oceanography , geology , habitat , biology , demography , sociology
Continental boundary currents are projected to be altered under future scenarios of climate change. As these currents often influence dispersal and connectivity among populations of many marine organisms, changes to boundary currents may have dramatic implications for population persistence. Networks of marine protected areas ( MPA s) often aim to maintain connectivity, but anticipation of the scale and extent of climatic impacts on connectivity are required to achieve this critical conservation goal in a future of climate change. For two key marine species (kelp and sea urchins), we use oceanographic modelling to predict how continental boundary currents are likely to change connectivity among a network of MPA s spanning over 1000 km of coastline off the coast of eastern Australia. Overall change in predicted connectivity among pairs of MPA s within the network did not change significantly over and above temporal variation within climatic scenarios, highlighting the need for future studies to incorporate temporal variation in dispersal to robustly anticipate likely change. However, the intricacies of connectivity between different pairs of MPA s were noteworthy. For kelp, poleward connectivity among pairs of MPA s tended to increase in the future, whereas equatorward connectivity tended to decrease. In contrast, for sea urchins, connectivity among pairs of MPA s generally decreased in both directions. Self‐seeding within higher‐latitude MPA s tended to increase, and the role of low‐latitude MPA s as a sink for urchins changed significantly in contrasting ways. These projected changes have the potential to alter important genetic parameters with implications for adaptation and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. Considering such changes, in the context of managing and designing MPA networks, may ensure that conservation goals are achieved into the future.