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Large‐scale impact of climate change vs. land‐use change on future biome shifts in Latin America
Author(s) -
Boit Alice,
Sakschewski Boris,
Boysen Lena,
CanoCrespo Ana,
Clement Jan,
Garciaalaniz Nashieli,
Kok Kasper,
Kolb Melanie,
Langerwisch Fanny,
Rammig Anja,
Sachse René,
Eupen Michiel,
Bloh Werner,
Clara Zemp Delphine,
Thonicke Kirsten
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.13355
Subject(s) - biome , climate change , land use, land use change and forestry , biodiversity , global change , land use , geography , vegetation (pathology) , environmental change , environmental science , global warming , climatology , environmental resource management , ecology , ecosystem , geology , medicine , pathology , biology
Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.