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Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift
Author(s) -
Reid Philip C.,
Hari Renata E.,
Beaugrand Grégory,
Livingstone David M.,
Marty Christoph,
Straile Dietmar,
Barichivich Jonathan,
Goberville Eric,
Adrian Rita,
Aono Yasuyuki,
Brown Ross,
Foster James,
Groisman Pavel,
Hélaouët Pierre,
Hsu HuangHsiung,
Kirby Richard,
Knight Jeff,
Kraberg Alexandra,
Li Jianping,
Lo TzuTing,
Myneni Ranga B.,
North Ryan P.,
Pounds J. Alan,
Sparks Tim,
Stübi René,
Tian Yongjun,
Wiltshire Karen H.,
Xiao Dong,
Zhu Zaichun
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.13106
Subject(s) - climatology , volcano , global warming , climate change , environmental science , context (archaeology) , global change , forcing (mathematics) , coupled model intercomparison project , regime shift , earth system science , radiative forcing , climate model , atmospheric sciences , geology , ecosystem , oceanography , ecology , paleontology , seismology , biology
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change‐point analysis and a sequential t ‐test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP 5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.