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The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO 2, and land use
Author(s) -
Zhang Ke,
Almeida Castanho Andrea D.,
Galbraith David R.,
Moghim Sanaz,
Levine Naomi M.,
Bras Rafael L.,
Coe Michael T.,
Costa Marcos H.,
Malhi Yadvinder,
Longo Marcos,
Knox Ryan G.,
McKnight Shawna,
Wang Jingfeng,
Moorcroft Paul R.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.12903
Subject(s) - climate change , environmental science , biosphere , amazonian , biosphere model , land use, land use change and forestry , ecosystem , biomass (ecology) , land use , amazon rainforest , greenhouse gas , terrestrial ecosystem , ecology , biology
There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO 2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models ( ED 2, IBIS , and JULES ) forced by three bias‐corrected IPCC AR 4 climate projections ( PCM 1, CCSM 3, and Had CM 3) under two land‐use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, land‐use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO 2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate‐induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land‐use change and climate‐driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO 2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land‐use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors – climate change, CO 2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use – to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.