Increasing global agricultural production by reducing ozone damages via methane emission controls and ozone‐resistant cultivar selection

Meeting the projected 50% increase in global grain demand by 2030 without further environmental degradation poses a major challenge for agricultural production. Because surface ozone (O 3 ) has a significant negative impact on crop yields, one way to increase future production is to reduce O 3 ‐induced agricultural losses. We present two strategies whereby O 3 damage to crops may be reduced. We first examine the potential benefits of an O 3 mitigation strategy motivated by climate change goals: gradual emission reductions of methane ( CH 4 ), an important greenhouse gas and tropospheric O 3 precursor that has not yet been targeted for O 3 pollution abatement. Our second strategy focuses on adapting crops to O 3 exposure by selecting cultivars with demonstrated O 3 resistance. We find that the CH 4 reductions considered would increase global production of soybean, maize, and wheat by 23–102 Mt in 2030 – the equivalent of a ~2–8% increase in year 2000 production worth $3.5–15 billion worldwide ( USD 2000 ), increasing the cost effectiveness of this CH 4 mitigation policy. Choosing crop varieties with O 3 resistance (relative to median‐sensitivity cultivars) could improve global agricultural production in 2030 by over 140 Mt, the equivalent of a 12% increase in 2000 production worth ~$22 billion. Benefits are dominated by improvements for wheat in South Asia, where O 3 ‐induced crop losses would otherwise be severe. Combining the two strategies generates benefits that are less than fully additive, given the nature of O 3 effects on crops. Our results demonstrate the significant potential to sustainably improve global agricultural production by decreasing O 3 ‐induced reductions in crop yields.