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Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate
Author(s) -
Kim HanYong,
Ko Jonghan,
Kang Suchel,
Tenhunen John
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/gcb.12047
Subject(s) - temperate climate , environmental science , crop , climate change , cultivar , crop yield , yield (engineering) , latitude , representative concentration pathways , agronomy , climate model , biology , ecology , geography , materials science , geodesy , metallurgy
The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the E ast A sian monsoon system using the CERES ‐Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO 2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber ( TGFC ) with a CO 2 enrichment system installed at C honnam N ational U niversity in G wangju, K orea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other J aponica rice growing regions in E ast A sia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in G wangju, K orea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO 2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (−22.1% and −35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in H arbin, C hina. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES ‐Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system.