Modeled transport of winter flounder larvae spawned in coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine

Abstract Winter flounder, Pseudopleuronectes americanus , from southern New England and the Gulf of Maine were historically considered to be obligate estuarine spawners. However, recent experiments and observations document that winter flounder in the Gulf of Maine also utilize coastal waters for spawning. An individual‐based modeling approach was used to investigate the transport of winter flounder larvae from three hypothesized coastal spawning grounds in the Gulf of Maine. Transport success rates were greatest for larvae released from Ipswich Bay, intermediate for Stellwagen Bank and least successful for those released from Jeffreys Ledge. There was substantial interannual variability in larval transport and geographic patterns of potential connectivity. Furthermore, the date of spawning had an important influence on transport success. Model results suggest that certain coastal spawning grounds used by winter flounder may serve as an important source of larvae to estuaries and nearshore nursery areas. The potential influx of coastal spawned larvae could have implications for the resilience, productivity and gene flow in local populations. Model results provide further support for the conclusion that winter flounder in the Gulf of Maine may not be solely dependent upon estuaries for spawning. Results also suggest that coastal spawning groups should be considered explicitly in the management of winter flounder, and protected under Essential Fish Habitat regulations.