Recruitment, distribution boundary and habitat temperature of an arcto‐boreal gadoid in a climatically changing environment: a case study on Northeast Arctic haddock ( M elanogrammus aeglefinus )

Climate change is expected to have major effects on the distribution and abundance of fish. In spite of extensive research on the topic in high‐latitude marine ecosystems, the mechanistic understanding of how temperature impacts recruitment and distribution of arcto‐boreal fish stocks remains elusive. Exemplified by an arcto‐boreal gadoid in the Barents Sea, the Northeast Arctic ( NEA ) haddock ( Melanogrammus aeglefinus) , we investigate the effect of ecosystem temperature (here temperature from a fixed reference section) on abundance and distribution boundaries between 1981 and 2008. During this time interval there has been a trend of increasing temperature in the ecosystem. We compare the ecosystem temperature with the species habitat temperature of NEA haddock (i.e., ambient temperature of the population) – two temperature approaches representing the indirect and direct environmental impacts on fish, respectively. In addition to the temperature effects, density‐dependent effects on distribution boundaries are considered. The study is based on swept area density estimates and spatial temperature data collected annually in winter surveys. We found a positive relationship between ecosystem temperature and abundance, a connection related to both direct and indirect mechanisms with short‐term and long‐term pathways. Distribution boundaries are, on a year‐to‐year basis, more related to abundance than ecosystem temperature. The long‐term trends, however, indicate a north‐eastward shift in distribution boundaries, probably indirectly related to the coinciding ecosystem temperature increase. In spite of the gradual increase in ecosystem temperature, the abundance of 4‐ to 7‐ year old NEA haddock expanded into colder waters. Thus, our results show how different the two temperature approaches may be.