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Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum
Author(s) -
Misirli Efdal Ulas
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
financial management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.647
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1755-053X
pISSN - 0046-3892
DOI - 10.1111/fima.12206
Subject(s) - momentum (technical analysis) , capital asset pricing model , productivity , risk premium , economics , shock (circulatory) , cash flow , financial economics , systematic risk , monetary economics , econometrics , finance , macroeconomics , medicine
A productivity shock identified through a vector autoregression model is a priced risk factor for one‐month industry momentum portfolios and commands a positive risk premium. Stocks in winning industries have greater sensitivity to productivity news, thereby earning higher average returns than stocks in losing industries. This evidence lends support to an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) with human wealth. In many specifications, exposure to productivity risk captures more than half of the observed industry momentum profits. This paper studies the sources of profits and attributes the risks of industry momentum portfolios to the behavior of their underlying cash flows.