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Fatigue crack growth prediction in nuclear piping using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation
Author(s) -
Rastogi R.,
Ghosh S.,
Ghosh A. K.,
Vaze K. K.,
Singh P. K.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
fatigue and fracture of engineering materials and structures
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.887
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1460-2695
pISSN - 8756-758X
DOI - 10.1111/ffe.12486
Subject(s) - piping , markov chain monte carlo , monte carlo method , paris' law , bayesian probability , markov chain , probabilistic logic , structural engineering , fracture mechanics , materials science , computer science , engineering , statistics , mathematics , mechanical engineering , crack closure
In this paper, we present and demonstrate a methodology to improve probabilistic fatigue crack growth (FCG) predictions by using the concept of Bayesian updating using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The methodology is demonstrated on a cracked pipe undergoing fatigue loading. Initial estimates of the FCG rate are made using the Paris law. The prior probability distributions of the Paris law parameters are taken from the tests on specimen made of the same material as that of pipe. Measured data on crack depth over number of loading cycles are used to update the prior distribution using the Markov chain Monte Carlo. The confidence interval on the predicted FCG rate is also estimated. In actual piping placed in a plant, the measured data can be considered equivalent to the data received from in‐service inspection. It is shown that the proposed methodology improves the fatigue life prediction. The number of observations used for updating is found to leave a significant effect on the accuracy of the updated prediction.