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Probabilistic risk analysis of fracture of aircraft structures using a Bayesian approach to update the distribution of the equivalent initial flaw sizes
Author(s) -
Torregosa R. F.,
Hu W.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
fatigue and fracture of engineering materials and structures
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.887
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1460-2695
pISSN - 8756-758X
DOI - 10.1111/ffe.12103
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , bayes' theorem , bayesian probability , engineering , probability distribution , flight safety , computer science , statistics , mathematics , aeronautics , artificial intelligence
A new method has been proposed to improve the accuracy of the probabilistic risk analysis of aircraft structures by progressively updating the distribution of the initial flaw sizes based on subsequent observations. The current flight hours of an aircraft are used to update the initial assumption of the distribution of the initial flaw sizes, based on the Bayes' theorem. Two Bayesian updating methods are presented: the first using the successful flight hours of the aircraft being analysed and the second using flight histories of similar aircraft in the fleet. In the first method, it is demonstrated that the Bayesian updating method can improve the risk analysis results of a single aircraft by utilising its own flight history. In the second method, it is demonstrated that the risk analysis result can be improved by utilising the collective flight histories of all aircraft in a fleet.