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A new methodology for carbon price forecasting in EU ETS
Author(s) -
Han Sung Kwon,
Ahn Jae Joon,
Oh Kyong Joo,
Kim Tae Yoon
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
expert systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.365
H-Index - 38
eISSN - 1468-0394
pISSN - 0266-4720
DOI - 10.1111/exsy.12084
Subject(s) - computer science , greenhouse gas , ridge , lag , set (abstract data type) , emissions trading , carbon market , carbon price , econometrics , class (philosophy) , european union , mathematical optimization , economics , artificial intelligence , mathematics , international economics , computer network , ecology , paleontology , biology , programming language
This paper proposes a new methodology for carbon price forecasting. It posits a finite distributed lag (FDL) model and then applies a GA‐ridge algorithm to determine a set of proper predictors with coefficient estimates. An empirical study was conducted in the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading market, revealing that our methodology not only yields good forecasting results but also provides some interesting analysis on the carbon price market. It turns out that the combination of the FDL model and GA‐ridge algorithm is desirable for forecasting and analyzing the complicated carbon price market because of its capability of selecting proper predictors from a class of predictors of itself.