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Comment on “Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring” by Wikelski, Mueller, Scocco, Catorci, Desinov, Belyaev, Keim, Pohlmeier, Fechteler, and Mai
Author(s) -
Zöller Gert,
Hainzl Sebastian,
Tilmann Frederik,
Woith Heiko,
Dahm Torsten
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
ethology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.739
H-Index - 74
eISSN - 1439-0310
pISSN - 0179-1613
DOI - 10.1111/eth.13105
Subject(s) - term (time) , ethology , earthquake prediction , animal behavior , computer science , econometrics , artificial intelligence , mathematics , ecology , geology , seismology , biology , zoology , physics , quantum mechanics
Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Ethology, 126(9), 2020, 931) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a “short‐term earthquake forecasting method.” We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state‐of‐the‐art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power.