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Risk score predictive of mortality in status epilepticus according to a national database
Author(s) -
Tiamkao Somsak,
Buranakul Nattakarn,
Saybungkla Pawinee,
Sirikarn Prapassara,
Sawanyawisuth Kittisak
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
epilepsia
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.687
H-Index - 191
eISSN - 1528-1167
pISSN - 0013-9580
DOI - 10.1111/epi.14489
Subject(s) - medicine , logistic regression , receiver operating characteristic , status epilepticus , framingham risk score , database , area under the curve , pediatrics , epilepsy , disease , psychiatry , computer science
Summary Status epilepticus ( SE ) is a serious neurologic condition with high morbidity and mortality rates. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk score that is predictive of mortality in patients with SE using clinical factors without electrocardiography. The inclusion criteria of this study were all patients diagnosed with SE and treated between 2005 and 2015. We retrospectively searched for eligible patients using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD ‐10) code for SE (G41) in the national Universal Health Coverage database. The outcome was death at discharge or within 30 days after discharge. Factors‐associated death was analyzed using stepwise logistic regression analysis. Risk scores were developed based on the final logistic regression model. The final model was also validated. There were 10 924 patients used for model development and 10 808 used for model validation. The formula to determine the risk score for SE mortality was 5 × shock + 4 × age over 60 years old + 3.5 × heart diseases + 3 × acute renal failure + 3 × septicemia + 2.5 × central nervous system infection + 2.5 × age 41‐60 years old + 2 × cancer + 2 × chronic renal failure + 1.5 × age 21‐40 years old + 1 × pneumonia + 1 × respiratory failure + 1 × anemia. The risk scores of greater than 4 indicated risk for mortality with a sensitivity of 78.20% and specificity of 75.38%. The area under the receiver‐operating characteristic (ROC) curve for death in the final model was 83.59%. The area under the ROC curve for the model validation group was 83.52%. SE patients who had a risk score of 4 or more were at high risk for death. Physicians should be aware of the high mortality rate in these particular patients.