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Thermal performance under constant temperatures can accurately predict insect development times across naturally variable microclimates
Author(s) -
Schmalensee Loke,
Hulda Gunnarsdóttir Katrín,
Näslund Joacim,
Gotthard Karl,
Lehmann Philipp
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/ele.13779
Subject(s) - ectotherm , microclimate , ecology , constant (computer programming) , butterfly , parameterized complexity , biological system , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , biology , mathematics , computer science , physics , programming language , combinatorics
External conditions can drive biological rates in ectotherms by directly influencing body temperatures. While estimating the temperature dependence of performance traits such as growth and development rate is feasible under controlled laboratory settings, predictions in nature are difficult. One major challenge lies in translating performance under constant conditions to fluctuating environments. Using the butterfly Pieris napi as model system, we show that development rate, an important fitness trait, can be accurately predicted in the field using models parameterized under constant laboratory temperatures. Additionally, using a factorial design, we show that accurate predictions can be made across microhabitats but critically hinge on adequate consideration of non‐linearity in reaction norms, spatial heterogeneity in microclimate and temporal variation in temperature. Our empirical results are also supported by a comparison of published and simulated data. Conclusively, our combined results suggest that, discounting direct effects of temperature, insect development rates are generally unaffected by thermal fluctuations.