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Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes
Author(s) -
Field Christopher R.,
Ruskin Katharine J.,
Cohen Jonathan B.,
Hodgman Thomas P.,
Kovach Adrienne I.,
Olsen Brian J.,
Shriver W. Gregory,
Elphick Chris S.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/ele.13384
Subject(s) - disturbance (geology) , resilience (materials science) , habitat , climate change , ecology , population , range (aeronautics) , ecosystem , psychological resilience , resistance (ecology) , environmental resource management , environmental science , vital rates , geography , population growth , biology , engineering , psychology , paleontology , physics , demography , sociology , psychotherapist , aerospace engineering , thermodynamics
Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance–impacted projections to a population's normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short‐term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance‐prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.