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Transient population dynamics impede restoration and may promote ecosystem transformation after disturbance
Author(s) -
Shriver Robert K.,
Andrews Caitlin M.,
Arkle Robert S.,
Barnard David M.,
Duniway Michael C.,
Germino Matthew J.,
Pilliod David S.,
Pyke David A.,
Welty Justin L.,
Bradford John B.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/ele.13291
Subject(s) - disturbance (geology) , population , ecosystem , ecology , population growth , vital rates , population cycle , psychological resilience , population decline , population model , geography , environmental science , environmental resource management , biology , demography , habitat , predation , psychology , paleontology , sociology , psychotherapist
The apparent failure of ecosystems to recover from increasingly widespread disturbance is a global concern. Despite growing focus on factors inhibiting resilience and restoration, we still know very little about how demographic and population processes influence recovery. Using inverse and forward demographic modelling of 531 post‐fire sagebrush populations across the western US, we show that demographic processes during recovery from seeds do not initially lead to population growth but rather to years of population decline, low density, and risk of extirpation after disturbance and restoration, even at sites with potential to support long‐term, stable populations. Changes in population structure, and resulting transient population dynamics, lead to a > 50% decline in population growth rate after disturbance and significant reductions in population density. Our results indicate that demographic processes influence the recovery of ecosystems from disturbance and that demographic analyses can be used by resource managers to anticipate ecological transformation risk.