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The diversity of population responses to environmental change
Author(s) -
Colchero Fernando,
Jones Owen R.,
Conde Dalia A.,
Hodgson David,
Zajitschek Felix,
Schmidt Benedikt R.,
Malo Aurelio F.,
Alberts Susan C.,
Becker Peter H.,
Bouwhuis Sandra,
Bronikowski Anne M.,
Vleeschouwer Kristel M.,
Delahay Richard J.,
Dummermuth Stefan,
FernándezDuque Eduardo,
Frisenvænge John,
Hesselsøe Martin,
Larson Sam,
Lemaître JeanFrançois,
McDonald Jennifer,
Miller David A.W.,
O'Donnell Colin,
Packer Craig,
Raboy Becky E.,
Reading Chris J.,
Wapstra Erik,
Weimerskirch Henri,
While Geoffrey M.,
Baudisch Annette,
Flatt Thomas,
Coulson Tim,
Gaillard JeanMichel
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/ele.13195
Subject(s) - fecundity , population growth , vital rates , population , ecology , biology , extinction (optical mineralogy) , climate change , demography , variance (accounting) , demographic change , economics , paleontology , sociology , accounting
The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever‐greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well‐advanced theory of age‐structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age‐dependency in demographic rates and the year‐to‐year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age‐specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage‐ vs. age‐based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival‐fecundity‐trade‐offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age‐specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.