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Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants
Author(s) -
Csergő Anna M.,
SalgueroGómez Roberto,
Broennimann Olivier,
Coutts Shaun R.,
Guisan Antoine,
Angert Amy L.,
Welk Erik,
Stott Iain,
Enquist Brian J.,
McGill Brian,
Svenning JensChristian,
Violle Cyrille,
Buckley Yvonne M.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/ele.12794
Subject(s) - ecology , climate change , resistance (ecology) , extinction (optical mineralogy) , population , range (aeronautics) , biology , ecological niche , vulnerability (computing) , geography , habitat , demography , paleontology , materials science , computer security , sociology , computer science , composite material
Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species’ occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide – as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk – was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species’ climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable.