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Reinterpreting maximum entropy in ecology: a null hypothesis constrained by ecological mechanism
Author(s) -
O’Dwyer James P.,
Rominger Andrew,
Xiao Xiao
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/ele.12788
Subject(s) - principle of maximum entropy , null model , ecology , mechanism (biology) , theoretical ecology , null hypothesis , relative abundance distribution , species richness , abundance (ecology) , entropy (arrow of time) , state variable , mathematics , econometrics , statistics , biology , relative species abundance , sociology , epistemology , physics , population , philosophy , demography , quantum mechanics , thermodynamics
Simplified mechanistic models in ecology have been criticised for the fact that a good fit to data does not imply the mechanism is true: pattern does not equal process. In parallel, the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) has been applied in ecology to make predictions constrained by just a handful of state variables, like total abundance or species richness. But an outstanding question remains: what principle tells us which state variables to constrain? Here we attempt to solve both problems simultaneously, by translating a given set of mechanisms into the state variables to be used in MaxEnt, and then using this MaxEnt theory as a null model against which to compare mechanistic predictions. In particular, we identify the sufficient statistics needed to parametrise a given mechanistic model from data and use them as MaxEnt constraints. Our approach isolates exactly what mechanism is telling us over and above the state variables alone.