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Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth
Author(s) -
Charney Noah D.,
Babst Flurin,
Poulter Benjamin,
Record Sydne,
Trouet Valerie M.,
Frank David,
Enquist Brian J.,
Evans Margaret E. K.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/ele.12650
Subject(s) - climate change , environmental science , taiga , precipitation , global warming , forest management , ecology , geography , physical geography , climatology , agroforestry , forestry , biology , meteorology , geology
Predicting long‐term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree‐ring observations spanning North America and a space‐for‐time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water‐use efficiency ( WUE ) due to CO 2 ‐fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high‐latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued ‘boreal greening’; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change.