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Common garden comparison of the leaf‐out phenology of woody species from different native climates, combined with herbarium records, forecasts long‐term change
Author(s) -
Zohner Constantin M.,
Renner Susanne S.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/ele.12308
Subject(s) - herbarium , phenology , climate change , temperate climate , ecology , biology , woody plant , botanical garden , geography
A well‐timed phenology is essential for plant growth and reproduction, but species‐specific phenological strategies are still poorly understood. Here, we use a common garden approach to compare biannual leaf‐out data for 495 woody species growing outdoors in Munich, 90% of them not native to that climate regime. For three species, data were augmented by herbarium dates for 140‐year‐long time series. We further meta‐analysed 107 temperate‐zone woody species in which leaf‐out cues have been studied, half of them also monitored here. Southern climate–adapted species flushed significantly later than natives, and photoperiod‐ and chilling‐ sensitive species all flushed late. The herbarium method revealed the extent of species‐specific climate tracking. Our results forecast that: (1) a northward expansion of southern species due to climate warming will increase the number of late flushers in the north, counteracting documented and expected flushing time advances; and (2) photoperiod‐ and chilling‐sensitive woody species cannot rapidly track climate warming.