Premium
UK shocks and Irish business cycles, 1922–79
Author(s) -
Stuart Rebecca
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
the economic history review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.014
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1468-0289
pISSN - 0013-0117
DOI - 10.1111/ehr.12664
Subject(s) - irish , economics , vector autoregression , business cycle , structural vector autoregression , aggregate demand , supply shock , aggregate (composite) , demand shock , monetary economics , macroeconomics , monetary policy , philosophy , linguistics , materials science , composite material
This article examines the transmission of UK and global shocks to the Irish economy over the period 1922–79, using annual data for consumer prices and real GDP in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. UK aggregate demand and supply shocks have large and significant effects on Irish CPI, but smaller effects on Irish real GDP. A historical decomposition indicates that UK aggregate supply and demand shocks played a more important role than domestic shocks in the evolution of Irish CPI. In contrast, the evolution of Irish real GDP is driven more by idiosyncratic domestic shocks than by UK shocks.