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Violent conflict and institutional change *
Author(s) -
O'Reilly Colin
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
economics of transition and institutional change
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2577-6983
pISSN - 2577-6975
DOI - 10.1111/ecot.12269
Subject(s) - spanish civil war , civil conflict , counterfactual thinking , politics , political science , quality (philosophy) , political economy , development economics , economics , law , psychology , social psychology , philosophy , epistemology
Violent conflict such as civil war may influence institutional quality by changing the political equilibrium or by changing preferences and norms. This study presents empirical evidence that in some cases civil war deteriorates institutional quality. By applying the synthetic control method to 25 cases of civil war between 1960 and 2010, I construct the counterfactual path of institutional quality in the absence of civil war. The effects of civil war are heterogeneous, but for a substantial minority of cases civil war appears to deteriorate institutional quality. These findings have implications for post‐civil war economic recovery as well as long run economic development.