Open Access30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%
Author(s) -
Hannah Lee,
Roehrdanz Patrick R.,
Marquet Pablo A.,
Enquist Brian J.,
Midgley Guy,
Foden Wendy,
Lovett Jon C.,
Corlett Richard T.,
Corcoran Derek,
Butchart Stuart H. M.,
Boyle Brad,
Feng Xiao,
Maitner Brian,
Fajardo Javier,
McGill Brian J.,
Merow Cory,
MoruetaHolme Naia,
Newman Erica A.,
Park Daniel S.,
Raes Niels,
Svenning JensChristian
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
ecography
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.973
H-Index - 128
eISSN - 1600-0587
pISSN - 0906-7590
DOI - 10.1111/ecog.05166
Subject(s) - extinction (optical mineralogy) , convention on biological diversity , limiting , biodiversity , climate change , greenhouse gas , geography , ecology , protected area , united nations framework convention on climate change , environmental science , environmental resource management , biology , kyoto protocol , mechanical engineering , paleontology , engineering
Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post‐2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.