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WHAT DO BRITISH HISTORICAL DATA TELL US ABOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIERS?
Author(s) -
Watanabe Shingo
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
economic inquiry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.823
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1465-7295
pISSN - 0095-2583
DOI - 10.1111/ecin.12746
Subject(s) - government spending , economics , multiplier (economics) , government (linguistics) , smoothing , public spending , fiscal multiplier , state (computer science) , macroeconomics , fiscal policy , public economics , political science , welfare , law , linguistics , philosophy , algorithm , politics , computer science , market economy , computer vision
British data from the early 1700s through World War I reflect the results of numerous high‐quality natural experiments of government spending. Britain frequently participated in wars, increasing military spending massively. Wartime distortions were relatively limited because the government generally adopted tax smoothing policy and rarely implemented interventions. Government spending multiplier estimates are low or negative and significantly below unity. This paper finds no evidence that the multiplier was higher in the slack state than in the normal state. ( JEL E32, E62)