THE EFFECT OF ABORTION LEGALIZATION ON CHILDBEARING BY UNWED TEENAGERS IN FUTURE COHORTS

This article examines the long‐term impact of legalized abortion on childbearing by unwed teenagers in the United States. I find that the 1970 legalization of abortion in the repeal states led to about a 6% reduction in unwed childbearing rates for white women aged 15–20 who were born in these states immediately after abortion became legal. I find a larger long‐term impact for African‐American women of the same ages: a 7.5%–13% reduction in unwed childbearing. My estimates are smaller and not as precise for the effect of Roe v. Wade. This outcome is not surprising given that I am able to estimate only a potential lower bound of the effect on unwed childbearing rates. On the other hand, when I estimated a Difference‐in‐Difference regression for the non‐repeal states assuming that there was no national trend that affected the childbearing behavior of the treatment age groups and their respective control age groups separately, I found that the true effect of Roe v. Wade on childbearing by unwed teenagers was about an 11% and 3% reductions for white and African‐American teenagers, respectively. (JEL J13, I18 )